Impact of GE13 Towards Investors

There's growing excitement of the upcoming 13th General Election has seen thousands of Malaysian thronging political "ceramah" every night. The topics spoken ranged from economic and social issues to plain slander between both coalition. While both the Barisan Nasional(BN) and the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) are laying claims that they will form the Federal Government come 6th of May 2013, foreign investors, local investors and fund managers are sweating in their palms as the day of election approaches. Will BN remain in power or will there be a change or as many call it "UBAH", allowing the PR coalition to form a new Federal Government after 50 years!

From an investing point of view, be it directly into shares from the Bursa or unit trust, the outcome of GE13 will definitely impact how our Bursa Malaysia's performance. Let's take a look at the possible scenarios of the 13th GE. 

Kindly note that I am writing from an investor's point of view with no relations or affiliations with either BN or PR. The last thing I want is for this blog post to be turned into a political topic.

Scenario 1:

BN Wins with a Landslide and Forms the Federal Government Once Again

If the existing ruling party, BN wins the 13th GE and has 2/3 majority to form the Federal Government, analyst and fund managers are predicting that it would be business as usual for the local Bursa.

Scenario 2:

BN Wins with a Slim Majority and Forms the Federal Government

There might be a temporary political instability in the BN's coalition as Najib's role as the Prime Minister might be challenged by the higher echelons of the BN party. Internal calls for change might arise to prevent another closed called election 5 years from now. However, the local Bursa should not be affected much as this issue should be internally resolved.

Scenario 3:

A Hung Parliament

Neither party has the sufficient majority to form a Federal Government. This would be a nightmare for many investors as without a country head, all plans for economic development would have to be put on hold. Nothing can be decided until the situation is resolved which might take months. Local Bursa will be affected as foreign investors would not dare to come in as long as the situation remains unsolved. I pray that this does not occur at all.

Scenario 4:

PR Wins with a Slim Majority and Forms the Federal Government

In view of this outcome, there will be a moment of instability for both political and economic outlook of the country as the new government tries to get the house in order. If PR manages to settle down quickly, then the market should not be badly affected.

Scenario 5:

PR Wins with a Landslide and Forms the Federal Government

Similar to Scenario 4, but with quicker recovery of the political and economic outlook of the country. Knowing that PR is a coalition consisting of 3 parties, we cannot rule out the possibility of internal bickering on who should hold key minister posts in the federal government. Unless of course PR has already decided way before the election with regards to this issue.

Other Impacts

Scramble for Power

If Scenario 2, 3 or 4 were to occur, there's also the possibility of further instability as both parties will try to entice independent elected MP's or MP's from opposing party to jump boats. This would definitely put on hold all key actions from respective party's manifesto and create further uncertainty to the local Bursa.

Wiping out Corruption and Cronyism

If PR were to form the Federal Government, one of the key promise they made is to wipe out corruption and cronyism. PR has also vowed to bring to justice those who are involved in dubious deals and contracts. The two most famously quoted billionaire in Malaysia that PR intends to scrutinized are Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary and T.Ananda Krishnan as reported in the Bloomberg News.

Share prices for companies belonging to the two tycoons would likely suffer loss in confidence as investors might start selling their shares if an investigation were to take place. 

Key companies owned by Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary (SMAB) that are listed in Bursa Malaysia are:

1) MMC Corporation Berhad (51.76% held by SMAB )

2) DRB HICOM Berhad (55.92% held by SMAB)

3) Padi Beras Nasional Berhad (to be delisted - takeover)

4) Tradewinds Berhad (to be delisted - takeover)

Key companies owned by T.Ananda Krishnan (TAK) that are listed in Bursa Malaysia are:

1) Maxis Communication Berhad (64.99% held by TAK)

2) Bumi Armada Berhad (42.419% held by TAK)

3) ASTRO Malaysia Holdings Berhad (newly listed on the Bursa)

Summary

With the expected battle between BN and PR to be very close, the possibility of Scenario 2, 3 or 4 would be the likely outcome. Regardless of whatever the outcome of the 13th GE, our local Bursa would most likely suffer a drop. The question is how much of a drop and how long?

For shares and unit trust investors, time to accumulate your cash as investing opportunities will surface after the 13th GE. Also you might want to consider looking for unit trust investment in the Asia Pacific region for the mean time.

Cheers and Happy Investing!

P.s : If you are based in Johor Bahru and would to know more about unit trust investing, feel free to e-mail me at sickfreak03@gmail.com

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Gold and Precious Metal Investment via Unit Trust

The dip in gold price finally stalled with the price of gold hovering at USD1400/ounce range for the past one week. While no one is able to predict the movement of gold price which have been rather volatile, here are some points from the Reuters dated 25th April 2013 that might give us an idea on what to expect for the future of gold:

Ø Gold rose on Wednesday as solid physical demand encouraged speculative buying

Ø Support also came from weak German economic data which fanned speculation that the ECB could cut interest rates

Ø Premiums for gold bars soared to multi-year highs in Asia after a spate of physical buying ran down supplies

Ø This comes as long-term fundamentals for gold remain intact

Ø A pick up in manufacturing activity & an improving global economy should help the demand for precious metals to recover

If and I mean IF the demand for gold were to rise as investor's confidence return, this is certainly an opportunity to invest into. Apart from purchasing physical gold or paper gold, investors can now invest into gold mining companies via unit trust as well! With rising demands coming from China and India, gold mining companies are certain to benefit from the gold craze once again.

In this post, I will be taking a look at AmPrecious Metals Fund, a feeder unit trust fund that invest in a portfolio of global Shari'ah observant equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in activities related to gold, silver, platinum or other precious metals.

The AmPrecious Metals fund is suitable for investors whom:

• seek a global investment strategy that conforms to Shariah principle
• seek medium to long term capital appreciation
• want to invest in gold, silver, platinum, and other precious metal equities, and their related equities

AmPrecious Metals

Fund Background

• Fund Category : Feeder (Islamic Global Equity) / Capital Growth
• Fund Launch Date : 15 November 2007
• Fund Launch Price : RM1.00/unit
• Fund Size (as of 28th Feb 2013) : RM455.88 million
• Fund Investment Strategy : Minimum of 95% of the Fund's NAV will be invested in the Target Fund (DWS Noor Precious Metals Securities) which is denominated in USD

Fund Holdings

Top 10 Fund Holdings as of 28th February 2013:

Sector Allocation as of 28th February 2013:

Fund's Country Allocation as of 28th February 2013:

Fund Performance

Cumulative Fund Performance as of 28th February 2013:

Annualized Returns as of 23 April 2013:

Actual Annual Returns Year to Year:

IME Fund Review

AmPrecious Metal fund is a feeder fund that invest their assets into a mother fund by the name of DWS Noor Precious Metals Securities. Simply said, the fund performance is dependent on DWS Noor Precious Metals Securities performance. 

In view of the latest drop in global gold price, the fund price for AmPrecious Metal fund has also suffered a major drop as shown below:

Current Fund Price as of 24 April 2013: RM0.4465 / unit

Fund Price all time Low: RM0.40 / unit

Fund Price all time High: RM1.19 / unit

Despite the current fund price being close to the all time low, investors should be aware that the all time low price is also caused by the recent dip in gold price. Hence this does not rule out the possibility that if global gold price were to suffer further drop, so would the unit price for this fund continue to breach its all time low.

On the contrary, with AmPrecious Metal fund price at an all time low, investors are given the opportunity to buy in and accumulate more units. Being a Syariah compliant fund, Muslim investors can also invest into the fund.

In conclusion, the AmPrecious Metal fund is a high risk investment unit trust fund. Investors must take into consideration of the risk involved. The recent major drop of gold price within a short period of time indicate how volatile the price of gold can be.

Cheers and Happy Investing!

P.s : For further inquiries, feel free to e-mail me at sickfreak03@gmail.com

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4 Myths About Unit Trust Investing

I find that the public in general have been mislead into believing certain myths about unit trust investing. These myth are largely cause by lack of knowledge about unit trust, false information created by non believers of unit trust and also inaccurate information being disseminated by unscrupulous unit trust agents that are too eager to make a sale. In this post, I would like to share the 4 Myths of Unit Trust Investing to everyone and hopefully clarify some existing misconception that have existed for such a long time.

1) Actual Annual Returns of a Fund must deduct the Annual Management Fee!

This is one of the biggest misconception many Malaysians have towards unit trust. When we see the annual returns shown in a fund factsheet, many investors tend to deduct the annual management fee from the returns to get the actual returns. For example:

Fund A

Annual Management Fee : 1.8%

Returns for 2012 : 7%

Actual Returns : (7% - 1.8%) = 5.2% <- mistake

The sample above is a misconception many of us tend to have towards unit trust. When we look at the annual returns stated in a fund fact sheet, that value is in fact the true Actual Returns of the fund for that year. 

Why is it so?

Firstly the annual management fee will be deducted from the fund's Net Asset Value on a day to day basis. Therefore when a fund publishes their fund price at the end of each business day, this is the true value of the fund after deducting all cost incurred for the day including the annual management fee.

Next, when calculating a fund's Annual Return for a particular year (say 2012), the fund price on 31st December 2012 is subtracted from the fund price on 31st December 2011. After which the difference is the percentage increase or decrease of the fund value as compared to the fund price on 31st December 2011. 

Looking at what I have explained above, we know that the annual management fee has already been deducted from the fund price on a day to day basis. Hence when calculating a fund's Annual Return, we need not deduct the annual management fee again.

2) There is only one Fund House available, which is Public Mutual

Another misconception many Malaysians have towards the unit trust industry. The truth is Public Mutual (PM) is the largest fund house in Malaysia. That is a fact. But bear in mind that it is not the only one available for investors. Due to aggressive advertising and promotion by PM, many Malaysian are only exposed to PM. The problem is so deeply rooted that whenever we talk about Unit Trust, we refer to Public Mutual. 

Truth be told that there are many other credible fund houses apart from PM such as Hwang Investment Management Berhad, Eastspring Investment Berhad, CIMB Principal Asset Management, Kenanga Investors Berhad and many more that offer unit trust funds for Malaysians. 

If you're diligent enough to do your homework or just search my blog, you'll realize that other funds apart from PM are performing much better then what PM's funds have to offer. That is a fact!

3) If A Fund House Goes Bankrupt, We Will Lose Our Investment

A structure of unit trust investment consist of the investor, a fund management company (fund house) and a trustee. The investors, that's us, place our money into a Unit Trust Scheme which is safeguarded by the trustee. A fund house manages the funds available from the Unit Trust Scheme and in return charges investors an annual management fee. 

In the event that a fund house or company goes into bankruptcy, the money that investors have placed into the Unit Trust Scheme cannot not be legally used to pay off creditors of the fund house that declares bankruptcy 

4) There Is Only One Type of Unit Trust

Generally, Malaysians have the perception that unit trust invest into shares in Malaysia. While part of this perception is true, there are still much more to unit trust then only investing in Malaysia share market. 

In total there are more then 600 over unit trust funds available in Malaysia. Generally, unit trust consultant recommend funds that invest in Malaysia because the fund managers are local and are generally exposed to the Malaysia market. However there are fund houses that have experience investing overseas, hence allowing them to launch funds that are primarily targeted at investing in specific geographical location such as:

1. Asia Pacific excluding Japan
2. Australia
3. China
4. Hong Kong
5. Indonesia
6. Japan

Apart from funds that invest in a variety of geographical location, there also funds that have are specifically designed based on investors risk profile. By setting guideline percentages of their asset allocation, investors with low risk tolerance select funds that have lower percentage exposure to the volatile share market. Here's a simple guideline:

• High Risk Tolerance - Select a fund that allocates 90% of more of its asset into Equity/Share Market
• Medium Risk Tolerance - Select a fund that allocates 50% to equity and 50% to fixed income investment such as bonds or sukuk
• Low Risk Tolerance - Select a pure fixed income fund 

As you can see, with a variety of funds available for the picking, learn to question to your unit trust consultant on the availability of these funds. Find out what's there to offer and not just blindly follow the consultant's recommendation. 

Summary

If you are based in PJ or KL and would like to know more about unit trust feel free to drop me an email at sickfreak03@gmail.com

Cheers and Happy Investing

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Saham Amanah Sabah Unit Trust, From Crisis to Champion!

When The Edge-Lipper Award 2013 announced Saham Amanah Sabah as the winner for Category Equity Malaysia Diversified (3 Years and 5 Years), it came as quite a surprise to many investors. A relatively unknown fund made available only for Sabahan investors managed to win two awards knocking out competing funds from other famous fund houses. 

In this post, I'll attempt to find out more about Saham Amanah Sabah or in short SAS!

Background

Saham Sabah Berhad is wholly-owned by the State Government of Sabah. The Manager is a holder of a Capital Markets Services Licence for dealing in securities - unit trust products, issued under the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007. It has an authorised share capital of RM15,000,000 divided into 15,000,000 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each, of which 12,000,000 is issued and paid-up. It has been in operation since 1994.

Fund Information

• Name of Fund : Saham Amanah Sabah
• Fund Category : Equity Fund
• Fund Type : Income and Growth Fund
• Launch Date : 10 October 1994
• Approved Fund Size : 1.5 billion units
• Investment Objective : Produce a reasonable rate of return for Unit Holders over the medium to long term (3 years and above) without exposing their investment to undue risk through various types of investments
• Investment Strategy : Up to 97% of the Net Asset Value (NAV) may be invested in a diversified portfolio of equities, with up to 50% of the NAV in foreign equities. The Fund may also invest in fixed income instruments. 
• Initial Offer Price : RM1.00/unit
• Current Fund Price as of 17th April 2013 : RM0.3567/unit
• Total Units in Circulation as of 30 Jun 2012 : 1,235,798,000 units

Fund Performance

(based on Interim Report SAS - 30 June 2012)

Actual Annual Returns

Year	Actual Annual Returns
First 6 Months (as of 30 June 2012)	3.12%
2011	-4.64%
2010	21.38%
2009	30.37%
2008	-4.18%
2007	9.02%
2006	22.92%

Dividend Returns

Annualized Returns as of 31 Dec 2011 

(as of posting, SAS has yet to release thee annual report for 31 Dec 2012)

Period	Annualized Returns
1 Year	-4.64%
3 Years	28.61%
5 Years	22.14%
Since Inception 1994	8.35%

SAS Controversy

In 1997, the unit price of SAS crashed from RM1 to less then 20cents between the period of 1997-1998 causing about 55,000 investors to lose about RM400 million. Till today, SAS investors whom invested before the price crash have yet to recover their initial investment. Just compare offer price of RM1.00/unit to the current unit price of RM0.3567/unit.

More information about the controversy can be found here:

1) Call for management of SAS to explain RM400 million loss

2) SAS scandal : Angry businessman slams Sabah for implicating him

Due to the loss of RM400 million, the Sabah State Government decided to bail SAS by announcing a NAV restoration plan called "Skim Peningkatan Nilai Aset Bersih SAS" in which the state government invested RM200 million into the fund by purchasing units at 25 cents/unit (8 cents higher then the unit price of 17 cents/unit at that time). 

More about the bailout HERE

Summary

SAS being a state government backed fund was able to afford catastrophic losses and still continue to operate till today. Any other fund house that has suffer such a loss would have shut down their fund immediately. The RM200 million bail out was intended to provide liquidity for SAS to invest with hope that one day the NAV price will return to it's initial offering price of RM1.00/unit.

Presently, SAS has improved in terms of transparency of their annual report as well as proving themselves capable of generating returns above the benchmark. In fact during the economic crisis of 2008, SAS managed to minimize their losses to -4.18% while other funds made double digit losses. The epitome of SAS achievement was recognized when they won 2 awards from the Edge-Lipper 2013 Awards.

However, the 1997-98 SAS fiasco has caused many Sabahans to lose faith in investing into unit trust. With no clear explanation from SAS with regards to the fiasco, the controversial subject has also turned into a political agenda used against the current ruling state government overshadowing the improvements that SAS have made.

Cheers and Happy Investing!

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Top 10 Best Performing Unit Trust Funds As of 16 April 2013

This is your first time reading this review? I would highly recommend that you read "A Guide Towards Understanding Unit Trust Performance Table" first before proceeding.

Review
Fund Category : Asia excluding Japan 
Top 10 Best Performing Fund for Category Asia Excluding Japan (click Image to Enlarge):

Top 10 Best Performing Fund for Asia Excluding Japan

2 Weeks Gain/Loss Ranking Table for Category Asia Excluding Japan:

Fund Name	YTD as of 30th March 2013	YTD as of 16th April 2013	2 Weeks Gain / Loss (%)	2 Weeks Gain/ Loss Rankings	Previous 2 Weeks Gain/Loss Rankings
Public Islamic Asia Dividend Fund	-2.35	-4.59	-2.24	6	3
Public Asia Ittikal Fund	-3.47	-5.32	-1.85	4	4
Eastspring Investments Asia Pacific Shariah Equity Fund	2.08	-0.11	-2.19	5	6
MAAKL Shariah Asia-Pacific Fund	-4.14	-5.36	-1.22	2	7
PB Islamic Asia Equity Fund	-4.12	-6.56	-2.44	7	5
Pheim Asia Ex-Japan Islamic	0.39	0.31	-0.08	1	1
CIMB Islamic Asia Pacific Equity Fund	0.76	-2.08	-2.84	9	9
Hong Leong Asia-Pacific Dividend Fund	1.65	0.23	-1.42	3	2
Eastspring Investments Asia Pacific Equity MY Fund	-0.18	-2.78	-2.6	8	8
Public Regional Sector Fund	Newcomer	5.26	N/A	N/A	N/A
AVERAGE 2 WEEKS GAIN/LOSS (%)			-1.88

Review of Asia Excluding Japan Funds:

For the past 2 months, we witness the average gain/loss for the Top 10 funds under the category Asia Excluding Japan suffering continuous losses. Total average loss for the past 8 weeks stands at -4.17%. In terms of individual fund performance, CIMB Islamic Asia Pacific Equity Fund (CIAPEF) is the biggest loser for the 2 consecutive review, shedding 2.84% from its NAV. 

Looking at the brighter side, shedding only -0.08% as compared to the category average of -1.88% is Pheim Asia Ex-Japan Islamic (PAEJI) fund. FYI, this is Pheim's second consecutive review being ranked first in terms of 2 Weeks Gain/Loss. During the past 1 month of poor performance, PAEJI has proven itself to be the most resilient by making the least amount of losses as compared to its peers.

The recent decline in the Asia Pacific Excluding Japan funds been largely linked to the China/Hong Kong and South Korea. Worries about the current bird flu situation at China turning into an epidemic has affected the overall performance of China equities. The lower then expected growth in China for the first Quarter has also contributed to the poor market performance. South Korea equities suffered losses over the past couple of weeks due to rising tension of war threats by North Korea.

Let's take a look at the asset allocation of the best performing fund (PAEJI) and the worst performing fund (CIAPEF):

PAEJI Asset Allocation:

CIAPEF Asset Allocation:

Comparing both funds, you can see the CIAPEF exposure to South Korean Equities is about 21% of its NAV as compared to PAEJI whom only allocates 8.31% of its NAV. This explains why CIAPEF have been making making losses that are higher then its peer.

In the previous review, I mentioned that a certain fund by the name of Hwang Asia Quantum Fund not being listed in the top 10 and that I will check with the site that provides the data for the top 10 fund. This is the response that I got from them:

In summary, if you're looking to invest into the Asia Pacific market, I would highly recommend Hwang Asia Quantum Fund as the choice of investment despite not being listed in the top 10 funds ranking. Short term/speculating investors who thinks that the Asia Pacific market will recover might consider looking at funds in the table above in search for opportunities to invest as all the funds are cheap in terms of unit price.

Review
Fund Category : Greater China

Top 10 Best Performing Fund for Category Asia Excluding Japan (click Image to Enlarge):

2 Weeks Gain/Loss Ranking Table for Category Greater China:

Fund Name	YTD as of 30th March 2013	YTD as of 16th April 2013	2 Weeks Gain / Loss (%)	2 Weeks Gain/ Loss Rankings	Previous 2 Weeks Gain/Loss Rankings
CIMB-Principal Greater China Equity Fund	-2.87	-5.64	-2.77	3	8
CIMB-Principal Greater China Equity Fund	-2.87	-5.64	-2.77	3	8
PB China Titans Fund	Newcomer	-4.43	N/A	N/A	N/A
Public China Ittikal Fund	-4.12	-5.4	-1.28	1	10
PB China Pacific Equity Fund	0.26	-2.6	-2.86	4	4
Public China Select Fund	1.21	-1.66	-2.87	5	3
AmIslamic Greater China	-3.93	-7.22	-3.29	7	6
Eastspring Investments Dinasti Equity Fund	-2.21	-4.09	-1.88	2	5
Hwang China Select Fund	8.54	4.54	-4	8	1
MAAKL Greater China Fund	-0.55	-3.72	-3.17	6	2
AVERAGE 2 WEEKS GAIN/LOSS (%)			-2.77

Review of Greater China Funds:

Including this review, Greater China funds have now lost an average of 7% over the past 10 weeks. Xi Jinping and co are facing wave after wave of challenges since taking over on March 14, 2013 as the President of China. The most recent being the H7N9 virus which have already killed 14 people in China. If the virus becomes epidemic, this does not bode well for China's economy. As I've mentioned earlier, the less then encouraging first quarter growth expansion for China has also contributed to the poor performance of China funds.

There's not much to brag about China funds considering that all 10 funds are in the red for the past 10 weeks. Investors are cautioned to observe how the problems in China will pan out before investing into China related funds.

Review
Fund Category : Equity Malaysia

Top 10 Best Performing Fund for Category Equity Malaysia (click Image to Enlarge):

2 Weeks Gain/Loss Ranking Table for Category Equity Malaysia:

Fund Name	YTD as of 30th March 2013	YTD as of 16th April 2013	2 Weeks Gain / Loss (%)	2 Weeks Gain/ Loss Rankings	Previous 2 Weeks Gain/Loss Rankings
MAAKL-HDBS Flexi Fund	1.57	4.57	3	2	4
Kenanga Growth Fund	3.03	3.93	0.9	10	5
AMB Dividend Trust Fund	1.27	3.06	1.79	6	7
Phillip Master Equity Growth Fund	3.61	6.31	2.7	3	2
Kenanga Syariah Growth Fund	2.63	4.09	1.46	7	6
Hwang AIIMAN Growth	2.07	5.9	3.83	1	10
MAAKL Dividend Fund	2.69	4.65	1.96	4	9
CIMB-Principal Equity Fund	2.88	4.83	1.95	5	1
Public Focus Select Fund	2.54	3.69	1.15	9	8
MAAKL Regular Savings Fund	1.02	2.44	1.42	8	3
AVERAGE 2 WEEKS GAIN/LOSS (%)			2.02

Review of Equity Malaysia Funds:

At times of uncertainty, where else to invest then in our own country. The past 8 weeks have seen an average gain of 5.8% for this category. Despite the upcoming election, our Bursa continue to maintain a slightly bullish sentiment thereby creating gains for all 10 funds under the Equity Malaysia category.

In terms of individual performance, Hwang AIIMAN Growth (HAG) fund is slowly making its way up the pecking order, gaining +3.83% for the past two weeks alone. Another fund that has managed to climb another rank higher to 4th is Philip Master Equity Growth Fund (PMEGF). Both HAG and PMEGF are funds to be watched and should continue to perform above average as compared to their peers. Philip Master Equity Growth Fund for example have been consistently ranked among the top three in terms of 2 week growth over the past four weeks. 

For investors looking for long term investment, I've always recommended to stick with Malaysian equity funds due to the outstanding annualized growth as well as low volatility. 

Note to Investors : I have decided to stop reviewing Fixed Income Funds as I feel that it is not worth my time as well as yours. 

- End of Review -

Did you find the Top 10 Best Performing Unit Trust Fund Review useful? Is there anything that you would like me to include into future review? Let me know by leaving a comment below.

Cheers and Happy Investing

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